U.S. and Russia agree to honor expired New START nuclear treaty terms

A significant diplomatic breakthrough was reported on Thursday, February 5, 2026, as Axios scooped the news that the United States and Russia have reached an agreement to voluntarily observe the terms of the New START nuclear pact, even after its formal expiration. This development comes as a crucial step toward stabilizing nuclear relations between the world’s two largest atomic powers amid ongoing global tensions. The New START treaty, designed to limit the number of deployed nuclear warheads and launchers, expired recently, raising concerns among global security experts about a potential unconstrained arms race. The mutual commitment by both Washington and Moscow to continue adhering to the pact's central limits and verification mechanisms suggests a willingness to maintain a baseline of strategic stability, mitigating immediate risks associated with a complete lapse in bilateral arms control protocols.

The commitment to observe the expired terms is particularly noteworthy because it demonstrates that, despite profound disagreements over international conflicts, there remains a shared interest in preventing nuclear escalation. This de facto continuation of the New START provisions provides a crucial period of predictability regarding the strategic forces of both nations. For the U.S., observing the terms ensures that American intelligence agencies retain insights into Russia’s nuclear posture that would otherwise be lost without a formal treaty framework. For Russia, the agreement likely provides reciprocal assurances regarding American capabilities and deployment intentions. The timing of this agreement, arriving shortly after trilateral peace talks involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia resumed in the UAE following a major energy attack, underscores the complicated, multi-faceted nature of current superpower interactions where conflict and cooperation coexist.

While this agreement is not a formal treaty replacement, its symbolic and practical importance cannot be overstated. It represents a fragile, informal understanding that must now be built upon to negotiate a sustainable, long-term successor agreement. The decision, finalized on Thursday, February 5, 2026, reflects high-level negotiations designed to prevent the strategic competition from becoming unmanageable. The continued observation of the expired pact’s protocols will be subject to intense scrutiny by military and diplomatic observers globally, watching closely to see if this voluntary adherence holds firm or if either nation uses the non-binding nature of the agreement as leverage in future diplomatic engagements. The sustained commitment to the spirit of the New START treaty terms is essential for global nuclear safety and non-proliferation efforts, providing a necessary, albeit temporary, stopgap against escalating strategic instability.